Unrest in Myanmar

The recent crackdown by Myanmar's military rulers on protesters has sparked an international uproar and drawn much attention to its regional affairs.

Although the protests only began in mid-August, the origins of this issue go way further, back to 1962 when the military seized power in a coup. Ever since, the junta has ruled its country with an iron fist, quashing its opposition firmly, and often, brutally. Myanmar held its last elections in 1990, when Aung San Suu Kyi's National League For Democracy won by a landslide, but was never allowed to govern. Suu Kyi and other prominent leaders of the NLD were placed under arrest.

The recent wave of protests originated from the sporadic demonstrations that broke out in August because of the doubling of price in fuel - a massive economic blow to its citizens, who are already bordering upon Third World poverty.

However, Myanmar's monks, who had previously been supportive of social order for years, became embroiled in the affair when they demanded an apology for their alleged rough treatment by military officials. When they failed to obtain this, they began mass protests, which the public soon joined.

Myanmar's monkhood is a force to be reckoned with within their own country. It numbers about 400 - 500 thousand, about as large as the military. More importantly, they are highly revered in Myanmar's largely Buddhist community, where the monks form the core of society's moral and social values. When they began their protests, speculation was rife over whether the military government would use force to deal with them.

Now, it seems the question has been answered, with at least 13 dead and hundreds arrested.

The repercussions that Myanmar's military government will face though, are by no means light.

Prior to this, the quest for self government and democracy has been underway in Myanmar for years already. Now, joined by the monks and the citizens, some analysts are going as far as to predict the downfall of the junta and its replacement with a democratic government, headed by none other than Suu Kyi - democracy activist, Nobel Peace Prize laureate, and political prisoner.

However, judging from the military's stance, it does seem that between the present state of affairs and that prophesied, there lies much violence, bloodshed, and tragedy.

Unsupported by the very people it governs, condemned by most of the outside world, and facing enemies on all sides, the military government has few avenues to deal with the current situation other than brute force from the police and military.

These means though, have managed to keep it in power for 19 years, through a combination of intimidation, deprivation, suppresion, and a sheer lack of opposition.

The junta's leader, General Than Shwe, made his stand towards any such prospective opposition chillingly clear, when he mentioned in a National Day speech: "Judging from lessons of history, it is certain that powerful countries wishing to impose their influence on our nation will make any attempt in various ways to undermine national unity."

He vowed to "crush, hand-in-hand with the entire people, every danger of internal and external destructive elements obstructing the stability and development of the state."

Ironically enough, his army is crushing the very people they are supposed to protect.

The possible implications that might arise from this are manifold; a successful deposing of the military government might be the catalyst for Myanmar's economic turnaround in the long term. Dubbed "Asia's rice basket", it is no wonder that many countries in the region are eager to prevent unrest within it. Even China, its closest ally by far, urged it "to seek stability in a peaceful manner and work towards democracy and development."

On a larger scale, a democratic Myanmar will join the multitude of nations worldwide in the rise of democracy. This of course will be good for the welfare of its citizens as opposed to its military dictatorship.

In conclusion, the severe state of affairs in Myanmar portends two very contrasting futures for the people of Myanmar - either the democratic rule of the country or the brutal suppresion of opposition in a repeat of the 1989 crushing of the democratic challenge to military government.

This time, though, the odds are quite differently stacked- countries worldwide have rallied behind the people and condemned the military junta, while the widely revered monks have thrown their weight behind the movement as well. As such, between the possible outcomes the former is the more likely of the two to occur.